Let’s play fantasy front office. What do you do when you have four pitchers in your starting rotation who are 25-years-old or younger, who are talented and special but also approaching new personal highs for innings pitched in a season; who you’re banking on to bring you out of a miserably long streak of losing seasons but who may be headed on the way to burnout. If you’re affiliated with the Pittsburgh Pirates Baseball Club, you choose to suggest a six-man rotation.
Paul Dickson’s The New Baseball Dictionary recognizes the four-man and five-man rotations, but a six-man rotation doesn’t make the cut for his book of listings. Dickson, who gives definitions and etymologies for even the most obscure baseball terms, apparently doesn’t believe that a starting rotation featuring six arms instead of five has enough historical precedent to be associated with his exhaustive glossary. Nor do I.
When a fan hears six-man rotation in a baseball conversation, he also hears the words "temporary" or "for a turn or two," meaning that a sixth pitcher will be added to the mix for a couple of weeks (at a maximum). In the last century of organized baseball, there have been times where pitchers have thrown regularly on five days of rest instead of four: think of instances where a starter is reinstated from the disabled list a little too early, or when a team plays twenty games in nineteen days, and so on. More often than not, though, teams will implement a four-man rotation, choosing to remove a weaker pitcher from the mix in an effort to maximize the number of times their aces can throw down the stretch. Not often do managers feel the need to further water down their pitching and insert a lesser player into a starting role.
Nevertheless, Jim Tracy, Dave Littlefield, and the rest of the Pirates braintrust have proposed using a six-man rotation for the remaining 41 games in 2006. With Ian Snell, Zach Duke, Paul Maholm, and Tom Gorzelanny about to hit their ceilings for innings pitched (the organization sets a goal of keeping pitchers within 20 IP over their previous full-season maximums), both Victor Santos and Shawn Chacon would be asked to throw every sixth day for the last month and a half of the year to lessen the burden our rookies are shouldering. Ryan Vogelsong, Britt Reames, Sean Burnett, Shane Youman, Marty McLeary, and Jason Roach, all starters at one point for AAA Indianapolis, could take major league starts in September when the Pirates roster is expanded to 40 men to fill out the sixth starter’s spot. The Bucs could also go the Mark Prior route and prematurely shut down one or more of their aces in the rough under the guise of injury prevention and run out even more AAA talent to the hill.
I’m a fence-sitter in the debate over whether or not a six-man rotation is good for our Big Four. On one hand, I want to see our starting rotation thrive for years in Pittsburgh, injury-free and stronger than ever. On the other, I don’t want to disrupt their routines or alter their mechanics, as big league pitchers are very set in their ways.
From club to club, between-start-routines vary–but all of Major League Baseball’s teams have programs that their starting five follow on the days in which they’re not scheduled to pitch. Practices include throwing bullpen sessions, long-tossing, watching film, running, lifting, and stretching, and all are meant to keep their pitching-related skills sharp. All a pitcher has is his control–ask Rick Ankiel and Steve Blass–and when he can’t locate the plate, his days are numbered. Off day routines allow big leaguers to get into a rhythm that they can follow from March until October in order to be as consistent in their appearances as possible.
So, if you’re the decision-maker for the Pirates, it comes down to which risk you’d rather take. Do you cut down on the number of innings thrown to reduce the risk of tired arms in the future? Do you let the pitchers throw a couple fewer starts but gamble with the possibility of tinkering with their precious mechanics–something that Jim Colborn and Jim Tracy already admitted to doing in April with disastrous results? It’s an either-or choice, but I’m not sure that I can agree wholeheartedly with one option.
In the last few times through the rotation, our starters have been as strong as any in Major League Baseball. Our young pitchers have been putting things together, and have even drawn comparisons (albeit probably undeservingly) to the Atlanta Braves teams of the early 90’s that relied on young guns named Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz, and Avery. While they have a ways to go to make good on those analogies–think .500 baseball, then playoffs, then World Series Championships and Cy Young Awards–our guys are undeniably possessors of skill and potential. Hopefully the decision made in 2006 will work out and allow 2007 and onward to be glory days for Pittsburgh baseball.
It’s A New Pirates Generation, everybody shout "Let’s Go Bucs!"
EDIT: Read Brady’s post "Going, Going, Gone" at http://inthecards.mlblogs.com for a look at what’s happening to an overworked Mark Mulder. I’m not saying Duke’s arm’s going to fall off, but you never know.